The Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Model: How Warnings, Volunteers and Shelters Work on a Delta Coast

The short version

Bangladesh is often cited as the country that turned cyclone deaths around, and its own Standing Orders on Disaster call its disaster risk management a role model for reducing loss of life in cyclones and floods (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). The record behind that claim is a system rather than a single project: a forecaster with legal duties to warn, a ministry that owns the chain of command, a volunteer corps on every exposed coast and a growing network of shelters. This explainer sets out how each part works, using the government’s own documents and the reports of the World Bank, WMO and IFRC, and what island and coastal governments can borrow. It sits in ISPI’s emergency management and resilience hub.

Two cautions frame what follows. First, the figures differ by source, especially for the 1970 cyclone, so ISPI gives each source’s number rather than one blended estimate. Second, fewer deaths do not mean fewer losses: Cyclone Remal in 2024 killed 16 people but damaged more than 173,000 houses (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025).

Why did Bangladesh build a cyclone preparedness programme?

The trigger was the cyclone that struck the coast of what was then East Pakistan on Nov. 12, 1970. The CPP’s official history records a storm surge of 20 to 35 feet across Patuakhali, Bhola and Noakhali, and puts the death toll at 1 million (CPP history). WMO gives an estimated 500,000 deaths (WMO) and the World Bank about 300,000 (World Bank coastal brief, 2022). Whatever the true number, all three sources treat it as the event that changed policy.

The CPP history attributes the scale of the loss to three gaps: coastal risk reduction was not a priority, the institutions for spreading warnings were weak, and people had not been taught what the warning signals meant (CPP history). The UN General Assembly responded by asking the League of Red Cross Societies, now the IFRC, to act on cyclone losses in the coastal belt (CPP history; BDRCS). WMO says the same storm prompted the international calls that led to its own Tropical Cyclone Programme (WMO).

The CPP was founded in 1972 by what was then the Bangladesh Red Cross Society with League support (BDRCS). Its history credits a Swedish relief delegate who arrived in Dhaka in September 1971 and drafted the programme’s outline after more than two months on the coast (CPP history). Early counts differ slightly by source: BDRCS describes 20,310 volunteers in 2,031 units across 204 unions and 24 upazilas in seven coastal districts, while the CPP history records 19,270 volunteers in 1,927 units across 186 unions of 23 thanas by August 1972 (BDRCS; CPP history). From the start the programme built radio links from Dhaka and regional offices to every coastal thana, and from thanas to remote unions and isolated islands (CPP history).

The decisive step was financial. On July 28, 1973, the government approved meeting all CPP costs and running it jointly with the Red Cross society, under a Policy Committee chaired by the disaster management minister and an Implementation Board chaired by the ministry’s secretary (CPP history; BDRCS). That joint government–Red Crescent structure is still the CPP’s legal shape in the 2019 Standing Orders (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

Who does what: MoDMR, DDM, BMD and the CPP

Bangladesh writes its disaster roles into one document. The Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD) set out the duties of national, district, upazila, union and city bodies, and of individual ministries and agencies, covering risk reduction and then emergency duties at four stages: response preparedness, alert and warning, the disaster itself, and rehabilitation and recovery (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). The 2019 edition sits under the Disaster Management Act 2012 (Act No. 34 of 2012) and the National Disaster Management Policy 2015, and its foreword says it complies with the Sendai Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

The CPP has two governing bodies in the SOD. The Policy Committee, chaired by the Minister of Disaster Management and Relief with the BDRCS chairman as a member, sets strategy and recommends resources; it meets at least twice a year (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). The Implementation Board, chaired by the ministry’s secretary with the DDM director general as vice-chair and BMD, BDRCS and IFRC representatives among its members, approves CPP costs, oversees the work plan and must ensure that warnings, including flag hoisting, go out after BMD issues a cyclone alert. It meets at least twice a year and again soon after Signal No. 4 is raised (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

Two design choices stand out for small governments. The forecaster’s duties are not left to custom: BMD must send bulletins to named control rooms and include the storm’s position, speed and direction, the districts and upazilas likely to be hit and the expected start of gale-force winds (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). And inclusion is written in, not added later: the SOD requires attention to women, children, older people and persons with disabilities at every stage, and tells the CPP to make sure volunteers know in advance which of them will evacuate which vulnerable residents (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

How does a cyclone warning travel from the Bay of Bengal to a village?

BMD watches two cyclone seasons in the Bay of Bengal, before the monsoon (March to May) and after it (October to November) (BMD Mora report). Once a system forms, BMD issues special weather bulletins and the SOD sets target lead times in coordination with MoDMR: an alert 24 hours before, a warning signal at least 18 hours before and a danger signal at least 10 hours before (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). In Cyclone Mora in 2017, BMD issued 17 special weather bulletins between formation and landfall on the Cox’s Bazar–Chattogram coast on May 30 (BMD Mora report).

From there the message moves on several tracks at once. BMD sends bulletins to the control rooms of MoDMR, DDM, the CPP and BDRCS (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). DDM forwards warnings to officials and the media and, after Signal No. 4, must make sure the warning reaches the community level (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Bangladesh Betar, the state radio, must broadcast Signal No. 4 hourly with BMD’s explanation and must broadcast cyclone warnings every 30 minutes and danger signals every 15 minutes, beyond normal hours if MoDMR advises (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Anyone with a mobile phone can dial 1090, a toll-free interactive voice line that gives weather and disaster warnings around the clock; the SOD tells DDM and district committees to publicize it (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

The CPP carries the last mile. Its head office relays BMD bulletins by wireless to upazila and union offices, contacts union team leaders by radio or runner, and checks that volunteers are in the field (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Field units mark shelters, raised refuges known as Mujib Killas and high ground; alert local committees, religious leaders and teachers; advise people to move when ordered; and give the final warning with megaphones, signal lights and flashlights (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Flags make the signal visible: one flag at Signal No. 4, two flags for Signals 5 to 7, three flags for Signals 8 to 10, and none for Signals 1 to 3 (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

The chain also plans for its own failure. Bangladesh’s port signal scale ends with Signal No. XI, which means communications with the Storm Warning Centre have broken down and local officers judge that a devastating cyclone is coming (BMD port signals). The SOD allows the armed forces’ wireless system to be used as an alternative communication route if needed (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). For island governments with one radio station and one cellular carrier, that is the most transferable idea in the system.

What do Bangladesh’s cyclone signals mean for ports such as Chattogram and Mongla?

Bangladesh’s numbered signals began as port signals, and BMD still publishes them in that form: eleven signals for maritime ports and four for inland river ports (BMD port signals). The sea-port signals tell a harbor master not only how strong the storm is but where it is likely to cross the coast relative to the port, with separate meanings for Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar on one side and Mongla on the other (BMD port signals). Encoding the likely landfall side into the signal itself is a way of handling track uncertainty, the problem ISPI’s examination of the warning-system gap Typhoon Bavi exposed in the Northern Mariana Islands identifies for island typhoon warnings.

Inland river ports have a separate scale. River Signal No. II requires vessels of 65 feet or less to seek shelter immediately; Signals III and IV order all vessels to shelter (BMD port signals). The government approved a revised set of warning signals and special weather bulletins for sea and river ports on March 10, 2008, with messages for communities set alongside each port signal (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). In that table, Great Danger signals tell communities that evacuation to safe buildings or cyclone shelters should be under way or complete, depending on the level (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

The ports have written duties too. Under the SOD, the Chattogram, Mongla and Payra port authorities must keep a port contingency plan, alert ships and everyone concerned after warnings and signals, keep cargo moves and berthing safe in a sudden disaster, prepare cargo handling and warehouses to support the response, speed the release of humanitarian cargo and appoint a disaster focal point (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

Two recent cyclones show the signals in use. In Mora (2017), BMD’s bulletins ended with Great Danger Signal No. X at Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar and Great Danger Signal No. VII at Mongla and Payra (BMD Mora report). In Remal (May 26, 2024), BMD issued Great Danger Signal No. 10 for Khulna, Satkhira, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Jhalokathi, Barguna, Barishal, Bhola and Patuakhali and their offshore islands and chars, advised Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram ports to hoist Great Danger Signal No. 9 and advised river ports to hoist riverine Great Danger Signal No. 4; Remal made landfall near the Mongla and Khepupara coasts at about 8 p.m. local time (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025).

For island economies that live through one harbor, the lesson is that port signals and public warnings should be one system, not two. ISPI’s Honolulu Harbor single-port explainer explains why a single-port state cannot afford a harbor that is told late, and the ports and maritime security research hub collects ISPI’s wider work on port resilience.

How large is the CPP volunteer force, and how is it organized?

The CPP is now far larger than its 1972 core. BDRCS describes 203 employees and approximately 76,020 volunteers, split equally between men and women, across 7 zones, 13 districts, 42 upazilas and 3,801 units (BDRCS). IFRC’s Remal final report, issued Aug. 31, 2025, counts 78,599 CPP volunteers within the BDRCS network (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). The difference reflects different counting dates; ISPI gives both rather than choosing one.

The programme runs through unit, union and upazila committees and offices that report to the CPP head office in Dhaka (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). The SOD fixes an annual rhythm: volunteers are appointed and trained before April each year, drills are held before the cyclone season to test preparedness, equipment held by team leaders is checked and repaired, and the wireless network is tested (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). District disaster management committees are separately told to run drills on warning dissemination, evacuation and search and rescue at least once every six months (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

The volunteers’ jobs run across the whole cycle. In warning, they spread BMD signals and flags; in the disaster, they support search and rescue and first aid and help local administrations distribute relief; afterwards, they collect damage reports, assist with vaccination drives and take part in rehabilitation (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019; BDRCS). BDRCS adds that the CPP received the Smith Tumsaroch award in 1998 (BDRCS).

The CPP’s mandate is cyclones, but the method is general: a standing volunteer network with written duties, refreshed every year, that the government pays for. ISPI’s analysis of Japan’s remote-island (ritō) policy describes how a very different archipelago plans for islands that are cut off after a disaster.

What role do shelters and embankments play?

A warning is only useful if people have somewhere safe to go. Bangladesh pairs the CPP with multipurpose cyclone shelters that serve as primary schools in normal weather (World Bank, 2022). The World Bank-financed Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (MDSP), a US$375 million IDA credit implemented by the Local Government Engineering Department, was designed to build 552 new shelters, rehabilitate 450 existing ones and build more than 550 km of access roads in nine coastal districts (World Bank, 2022). As of December 2021, 166 new shelters and 50 km of all-weather roads had been completed and 370 shelters rehabilitated, protecting more than 589,400 people and 40,600 livestock (World Bank coastal brief, 2022). The project record lists board approval on Dec. 16, 2014 and a closing date of Dec. 31, 2024 (World Bank project P146464).

The World Bank notes that the government estimated over 7,000 multipurpose shelters would be needed by 2025 across 19 coastal districts, and that the number of shelters was still well below what is needed (World Bank, 2022). It also records that community preparedness for the shelter project runs through the CPP, and that the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, approved in 2018, lists cyclone shelters as a priority intervention (World Bank, 2022).

Embankments are the other half of the delta defense. The Coastal Embankment Improvement Project Phase 1, approved in 2013, rehabilitates polders, low-lying land enclosed by embankments, to reduce tidal flooding, storm surge and saline intrusion; by December 2021 it had upgraded around 250 km of embankments and the project had created increased protection for more than 402,000 people (World Bank coastal brief, 2022). The World Bank puts the two projects’ combined investment at US$776.7 million and says cyclone casualties have dropped by a factor of 100 (World Bank coastal brief, 2022).

The SOD keeps the hardware linked to the warning chain: DDM must maintain lists of cyclone and flood shelters, Mujib Killas and high platforms and repair the roads that lead to them, and the CPP must mark those places and run campaigns so people know their evacuation plan (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

How has the model performed, from Bhola to Remal?

Every source ISPI opened describes a steep fall in cyclone deaths, while differing on the exact numbers.

Remal is the most fully documented recent test. IFRC’s final report, drawing on DDM data, records maximum winds of 111 km/h according to BMD, a 5 to 8 foot storm surge, about 4.6 million people affected across 19 districts and 16 deaths in seven districts (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). CPP and BDRCS volunteers, with local administrations, spread early-warning messages and helped move more than 800,000 people to 9,424 shelters before landfall (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025).

The losses that warnings cannot prevent were still large. The same report records more than 173,000 houses damaged, 40,338 of them made uninhabitable, about 80,591 hectares of farmland flooded, damage to 20,260 water points and 134,269 latrines, and agricultural losses estimated at BDT 10,595 million (US$90.7 million) (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). IFRC’s second operation update, issued Oct. 7, 2024, reported its CHF 12.5 million Federation-wide appeal as 22 per cent funded (IFRC Operation Update 2, Oct. 7, 2024).

WMO uses Mocha in 2023 to make the same point at global level: Bangladesh and Myanmar once suffered death tolls of tens and even hundreds of thousands, and early warnings and disaster management have made such tolls history (WMO, May 31, 2023). WMO’s own 40-year review of its Tropical Cyclone Programme likewise credits better monitoring, forecasting and warning, combined with national warning mechanisms that reach the last mile (WMO). Neither source assigns a share of the improvement to any single component, and ISPI does not either.

Where is the model still stretched?

The official sources themselves point to the gaps. Shelter numbers remain well below need, according to the World Bank (World Bank, 2022). Warnings save lives but not houses, crops, water points or livelihoods, as the Remal damage figures show (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). And the system depends on communication links that the SOD expects can fail, which is why it includes Signal No. XI and an armed-forces radio fallback (BMD port signals; Standing Orders on Disaster 2019).

Funding is a second pressure. The CPP’s survival rested on the 1973 decision that the government would meet all its costs rather than depend on uncertain foreign support (CPP history). Emergency response still leans on international appeals; IFRC’s Remal appeal sought CHF 12.5 million Federation-wide (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025).

Third, the hazard picture is broader than cyclones. The SOD covers floods, earthquakes, landslides, lightning, fires, chemical accidents and epidemics as well (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019), and in 2024 Bangladesh faced severe monsoon flooding while the Remal response was still under way (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). A volunteer system built for one hazard has to be stretched to others without losing its cyclone readiness.

What this means for island and coastal governments

Most island governments cannot field tens of thousands of volunteers, but they can copy the design. The UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative aims to protect everyone with early warning systems by the end of 2027 and reports that 57 per cent of small island developing States lack adequate multi-hazard early warning systems (UN Early Warnings for All). The Sendai Framework’s seven global targets, with which Bangladesh’s SOD says it complies, give a common yardstick for measuring progress to 2030 (UNDRR; Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Six practical steps follow from Bangladesh’s experience:

• Write the warning chain down, by name and by stage. The SOD gives each body duties for preparedness, warning, disaster and recovery (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). An island’s plan should say who issues, who relays, who broadcasts and who knocks on doors, and how often each repeats the message.
• Set lead-time targets and a broadcast cadence. Bangladesh aims for 24, 18 and 10 hours for alert, warning and danger signals, and repeats danger messages every 15 minutes on state radio (Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Islands facing local tsunamis have far less time, as ISPI’s World Tsunami Awareness Day guide to island tsunami warnings explains, which makes rehearsed, pre-scripted messages even more important.
• Join port signals and public warnings. Bangladesh’s port signals carry community messages and trigger written port duties (BMD port signals; Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Island harbor masters, port authorities and emergency managers should use one signal set and one contact list.
• Build a local volunteer layer and pay for it. The CPP works because the state funds it, trains volunteers every year before the season and balances men and women in its ranks (CPP history; Standing Orders on Disaster 2019; BDRCS). Village or district response teams in Pacific and Caribbean islands can follow the same annual cycle; ISPI’s Hurricane Beryl lessons for small-island emergency managers shows why outer islands need their own capacity.
• Plan for the warning system to fail. Signal No. XI and the armed-forces radio fallback exist because links break (BMD port signals; Standing Orders on Disaster 2019). Island agencies should pair their warning plans with a continuity of operations planning guide for island local governments that assumes power, cable and cellular outages.
• Count what warnings do not save. Remal killed 16 people but damaged more than 173,000 houses and thousands of water points (IFRC final report, Aug. 31, 2025). Recovery funding, shelter capacity and water systems need their own targets, a point ISPI’s Cyclone Ditwah analysis for Sri Lanka also makes.

The Bangladesh model is not a template to paste; it is a set of habits built over five decades on a crowded delta. For island and coastal governments, its value lies in three habits that cost little to adopt: written roles, rehearsed warnings and people on the ground who are trained before the season starts. ISPI’s WP-03 working paper on island emergency management sets out the wider case for island-specific emergency management.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP)?

It is a joint programme of the Government of Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, founded in 1972 after the 1970 cyclone and funded by the government since 1973. Its trained volunteers spread official cyclone warnings in coastal communities and help with evacuation, sheltering, search and rescue, first aid and relief. BDRCS describes about 76,020 volunteers, half of them women; IFRC’s August 2025 report counts 78,599.

Who issues cyclone warnings in Bangladesh?

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department issues special weather bulletins and the numbered cyclone signals. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, its Department of Disaster Management, state broadcasters and the CPP then relay them, as set out in the Standing Orders on Disaster 2019. Anyone can also dial the toll-free 1090 line for warnings.

What do Bangladesh’s cyclone signal numbers mean?

For sea ports, Signals I to IV are cautionary and warning signals, V to VII are danger signals for storms of 62–88 km/h, VIII to X are great danger signals for storms of 89 km/h or more, and XI means communications with the Storm Warning Centre have failed. Communities hoist one flag at Signal 4, two flags at 5 to 7 and three flags at 8 to 10.

How many people died in Cyclone Remal in 2024?

According to Department of Disaster Management data reported by IFRC, Cyclone Remal killed 16 people in seven districts and affected about 4.6 million people in 19 districts. About 807,023 people were evacuated to 9,424 cyclone shelters before landfall.

Can small island governments copy the Bangladesh model?

Not at the same scale, but the design transfers: one warning authority, written roles for every level, lead-time targets, a trained local volunteer layer funded by government, shelters people know how to reach, and a plan for communications failure. Island governments should adapt it to shorter warning times and smaller populations.

ISPI publishes its research free under CC BY 4.0. If your island government, emergency management agency or port authority needs a warning-chain review, a cyclone or tsunami tabletop exercise or a volunteer-programme design study, you can commission research from ISPI. ISPI is a nonprofit organization with its 501(c)(3) application pending.

Sources

1. Government of Bangladesh, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Standing Orders on Disaster 2019 (English version; copy held by the Bangladesh Public Administration Training Centre repository) (PDF)
2. Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), Government of Bangladesh, History (in Bangla)
3. Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP)
4. Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Signals for maritime ports and inland river ports (PDF)
5. Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Scientific Report on Cyclone MORA (2017) (PDF)
6. IFRC, Bangladesh: Cyclone Remal, Emergency Appeal MDRBD035, Final Report (issued Aug. 31, 2025) (PDF)
7. IFRC, Bangladesh: Cyclone Remal, Emergency Appeal MDRBD035, Operation Update No. 2 (issued Oct. 7, 2024) (PDF)
8. World Bank, Shelter from the Storm: Protecting Bangladesh’s Coastal Communities from Natural Disasters (results brief, Aug. 29, 2022)
9. World Bank, Building Coastal Resilience to Protect Lives and Livelihoods in Bangladesh (results brief, Aug. 29, 2022)
10. World Bank, Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (P146464), project record
11. World Meteorological Organization, Tropical Cyclone Programme: 40-year review highlights success
12. World Meteorological Organization, Early Warnings for All officially becomes WMO’s top priority (press release, May 31, 2023)
13. United Nations, Early Warnings for All
14. UNDRR, What is the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction?
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