Supply chain singularity — dependence on a few ports, with no overland alternative — creates a compound threat profile that affects every island security domain simultaneously.
Abstract
Documents the supply chain singularity condition specific to island communities and its implications across all public safety domains. Establishes the policy framework for institutional and government preparedness for supply chain disruption in island environments that depend on a few ports. All ISPI research is free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Key Findings
Supply chain singularity creates a multiplier effect — a single disruption simultaneously affects food security, fuel supply, medical supplies, emergency equipment, and law enforcement resources
About 80 percent of goods consumed in Hawaii are imported, and about 98 percent of those arrive through the commercial harbors (HDOT Harbors)
Hawaii's emergency management agency already asks residents to be 2 Weeks Ready; ISPI proposes a 30-day community reserve standard, subject to a reserve adequacy study
Summary of the paper
"Supply Chain Security and Community Resilience in Island Communities" sets out a policy framework for communities that depend on a small number of ports with no overland alternative, a condition ISPI calls supply chain singularity.
It uses state data: about 80 percent of goods consumed in Hawaii are imported, about 98 percent of those arrive through the commercial harbors, and an estimated 85 to 90 percent of food is imported.
What the paper finds
- The harbors are the supply chain. Neighbor Island cargo is first received at Honolulu Harbor in a hub-and-spoke system.
- State guidance already goes beyond 72 hours. HIEMA asks residents to be 2 Weeks Ready.
- Limited buffer, in ISPI's analysis. Retail inventories designed for frequent replenishment hold little stock against a port disruption.
What it recommends
- Hawaii Legislature: commission a reserve adequacy study and fund community-level reserves (ISPI proposes 30 days).
- HIEMA and HDOT Harbors: plan for the harbors' emergency delivery role, including insider threat measures.
- Counties: inter-island supply sharing agreements.
- Congress: consider import dependence in preparedness grants.
Who it's for
Emergency managers, harbor and port officials, legislators, and community resilience organizations.
In ISPI's analysis, many small island developing states, in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean, face similar import dependence.
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Supply Chain Security and Community Resilience in Island Communities: A Policy Framework for Non-Contiguous, Geographically Isolated Communities Where the Supply Chain Is the Infrastructure (ISPI WP-06). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp06-supply-chain-security https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449798
BibTeX
@techreport{ispiwp062026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Supply Chain Security and Community Resilience in Island Communities: A Policy Framework for Non-Contiguous, Geographically Isolated Communities Where the Supply Chain Is the Infrastructure},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI WP-06},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp06-supply-chain-security},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449798}
}Related Research
WP-03 — Emergency Management Framework →PB-05 — Supply Chain Policy Brief →PB-07 — Supply Chain Insider Risk →Related analysis
AnalysisSupply Chain Singularity — The Island Security Vulnerability No Continental Framework Addresses →AnalysisPhilippines 2026: Supply Chain Singularity in Real Time →AnalysisThe Pacific Invoked the Biketawa Declaration Over Fuel: What It Means for Island Supply Chains →PaperWP-05 — Law Enforcement Workforce Policy in Island Communities →PaperWP-07 — Community Policing in Pacific Island Jurisdictions →GuideIsland Supply Chain Security & Community Resilience: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Supply Chain Security and Community Resilience in Island Communities." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp06-supply-chain-security
