Supply Chain Security Policy Brief — Island Communities

Summary of the paper

"When 90 Percent Arrives by Ship" is an ISPI policy brief on supply chain security as a public safety issue for island communities. Its starting point is that, for Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific territories, the port is not one supply chain among several; it is the supply chain, and when it stops, every category of supply stops at once.

The brief calls this the singularity problem. Continental resilience planning assumes alternative routes exist when a primary route fails. Island communities lack that guarantee, so the brief argues the policy goal must shift from redundancy to reserves that carry a community through the gap between a port failure and the restoration of delivery.

What the paper finds

• One disruption, every category. Food, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, construction materials and fuel all move through port infrastructure with no alternative delivery mechanism.
• 72-hour guidance does not fit island conditions. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency itself advises residents to keep at least 14 days of supplies, citing the state's reliance on shipping. The brief also cites the state planning office's estimate that 85 to 90 percent of Hawaii's food is imported.
• Port security frameworks are continental. CBP and DHS port programs are not calibrated for ports that are both the sole supply route and the main entry point for emergency resources.

What it recommends

• Mandate state-level pre-positioned food, pharmaceutical and fuel reserves for Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific territories sized for at least a 30-day disruption.
• Develop island-specific port security frameworks that treat emergency supply continuity as a primary objective alongside security.
• Commission an integrated island supply chain security framework covering port security, emergency preparedness and food system resilience.
• Create federal funding mechanisms for island supply chain resilience infrastructure rather than applying continental funding formulas.

Who it's for

State and territorial emergency managers, port authorities, harbor and logistics operators, food and fuel distributors, legislators and federal resilience program staff.

Further reading

• Philippines: Public Safety Policy for the World's Most Complex Archipelago
• Nuclear Security Operations and What They Reveal About Island Critical Infrastructure Protection
• Why Corporations Operating on Islands Commission Independent Security Research

Cite as

Pulley, Warren (2026). When 90 Percent Arrives by Ship: Supply Chain Security and the Island Community Vulnerability That Policy Has Not Addressed (ISPI PB-05). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/pb05-supply-chain-security https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449984

@techreport{ispipb052026,
  author      = {Pulley, Warren},
  title       = {When 90 Percent Arrives by Ship: Supply Chain Security and the Island Community Vulnerability That Policy Has Not Addressed},
  institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
  address     = {Honolulu, HI},
  number      = {ISPI PB-05},
  year        = {2026},
  url         = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/pb05-supply-chain-security},
  doi         = {10.5281/zenodo.23449984}
}

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