Policy brief on hurricane preparedness and response for Pacific island governments and communities.
Policy brief on hurricane preparedness and response for Pacific island governments and communities. Free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 — no registration required.
Summary of the paper
Hawaii has not had a major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Iniki struck Kauai in 1992. This ISPI policy brief argues that three decades without a direct hit have produced consequential planning gaps, and that a direct major hurricane strike on Oahu, with airport closure, port disruption, power grid failure and road flooding happening at once, is a compound emergency that current mutual aid frameworks and supply chain continuity plans are not designed to manage.
The brief also looks beyond Hawaii. Pacific Island territories face regular typhoon exposure, but the infrastructure hardening that operational experience shows is necessary remains chronically underfunded. The paper uses the 2023 Maui wildfire as a reminder of what can happen when a low-probability, high-consequence event hits an emergency management system that has not sustained active preparedness for it.
What the paper finds
- Preparedness has drifted. The long gap since Iniki has produced planning gaps that the paper identifies as consequential for a future major hurricane.
- An Oahu strike would be a compound emergency. Simultaneous airport closure, port disruption, grid failure and road network flooding is a scenario that current mutual aid frameworks and supply chain continuity plans are not designed to manage.
- Concentration raises the stakes. Oahu is home to about 70 percent of Hawaii's population, so a direct major hit would be a mass casualty and infrastructure disruption event at a scale the state's emergency management system has not been seriously stress-tested against.
- Hawaii lacks a plan for losing its hub. The brief calls for inter-island mutual aid frameworks that keep operations running when Oahu's infrastructure is severely damaged, options current frameworks do not provide.
- Investment tracks recent events, not risk. The paper argues hardening budgets should be set by documented hurricane risk rather than by how recently a storm has hit.
- Territories are exposed and underfunded. Pacific Island territories experience typhoons regularly, yet infrastructure hardening remains chronically underfunded relative to the documented risk.
- Lahaina is the warning. The 2023 Maui wildfire showed the cost of a low-probability, high-consequence event meeting a system without sustained preparedness for it.
What it recommends
- Commission a comprehensive hurricane preparedness gap analysis for Hawaii's emergency management system, specifically assessing readiness for a direct major hurricane strike on Oahu.
- Fund island-specific hurricane infrastructure hardening for Hawaii and Pacific territory critical infrastructure at levels set by documented hurricane risk rather than recent-event experience.
- Develop inter-island mutual aid frameworks for Hawaii that keep operations running when Oahu's infrastructure is severely damaged.
Who it's for
State and county emergency managers in Hawaii, utility, port and airport operators, emergency managers in Guam, the CNMI and American Samoa, legislators and budget staff deciding on hardening investments, and businesses that depend on Oahu's infrastructure to operate during hurricane season.
This research connects to the 39 Small Island Developing States worldwide through the Samoa Pathway and BPOA+30 framework. Every ISPI research product carries a mandatory SIDS global bridge per the ISPI Research Architecture.
Further reading
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Hurricane Season in the Pacific: Emergency Management Policy Gaps for Tropical Cyclone Events in Hawaii and Pacific Island Communities (ISPI PB-11). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/pb11-hurricane-emergency https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23450013
BibTeX
@techreport{ispipb112026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Hurricane Season in the Pacific: Emergency Management Policy Gaps for Tropical Cyclone Events in Hawaii and Pacific Island Communities},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI PB-11},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/pb11-hurricane-emergency},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23450013}
}Related analysis
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