In ISPI's analysis, climate-related hazards amplify island vulnerabilities in five ways: wildfire, port exposure, shipping disruption, water stress, and food supply. With an estimated 85 to 90 percent of food imported (State of Hawaii), planning for compound scenarios matters.
Abstract
Applies ISPI's island emergency framework to climate-related hazards in Hawaii, identifying five compound risks and recommending planning adaptations for the Legislature, HIEMA, agriculture, and counties. All ISPI research is free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Key Findings
The State has estimated that 85 to 90 percent of Hawaii's food is imported (Office of Planning, DBEDT 2012)
In the Lahaina fire, water supply and communications failed together during a wind-driven fire (FSRI 2024)
ISPI recommends emergency protocols for compound scenarios, such as wildfire with power and water loss
Summary of the paper
"Climate Change, Island Emergency Vulnerability, and Hawaii Policy" applies ISPI's island emergency framework to climate-related hazards in Hawaii.
It draws on state food import and harbor data and the Lahaina fire reports. It notes the 2026 RISE bonds ballot question without taking a position.
What the paper finds
- Five compound risks, in ISPI's analysis: wildfire, port exposure, shipping disruption, water system stress, and food supply.
- Imports. The State has estimated that 85 to 90 percent of Hawaii's food is imported.
- Lahaina. Water supply and communications failed together during the wind-driven fire.
What it recommends
- Legislature: require county plans to address climate-related hazard trends.
- HIEMA: plan for compound scenarios.
- Department of Agriculture: treat local food production as resilience.
- Counties: plan for harbor and supply disruption.
Who it's for
Emergency managers, legislators, county planners, and agriculture officials.
Climate-related hazards are a shared concern for small island developing states, and the compound-scenario approach applies beyond Hawaii, in ISPI's analysis.
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Climate Change, Island Emergency Vulnerability, and Hawaii Policy: Compound Risks and Planning Adaptations (ISPI HI-08). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi08-climate-resilience https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449788
BibTeX
@techreport{ispihi082026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Climate Change, Island Emergency Vulnerability, and Hawaii Policy: Compound Risks and Planning Adaptations},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI HI-08},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi08-climate-resilience},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449788}
}Related Research
WP-03 — Emergency Management Framework →WP-06 — Supply Chain Security →CM-06 — Climate Security Island Public Safety →Related analysis
AnalysisPacific Security Outlook Report 2026: Key Findings and the Declarations Behind Them →AnalysisWhat Is Island Emergency Management? Why Continental Frameworks Don't Apply →AnalysisHawaiʻi's Biosecurity Law (Act 236): What Changes on January 1, 2027 →PaperHI-07 — Native Hawaiian Rights and DHHL Policy: Public Safety Implications →PaperHI-09 — Aging Population and Healthcare Infrastructure in Hawaii: Emergency Preparedness Implications →RegionHawaii Public Safety Research →GuideIsland Emergency Management & Preparedness: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Climate Resilience and Emergency Response in Hawaii." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi08-climate-resilience
