Hawaii relies less on federal grants for state revenue than any other state (Pew, FY2023), but federal spending is a large part of its economy (BEA). ISPI recommends an inventory of grant-dependent public safety capacity, a state-funded baseline, and contingency plans.
Abstract
Examines how federal funding uncertainty affects Hawaii's public safety and emergency management programs through both state revenue and federal grants, reviews the 2026 legislative response, and sets out state options to reduce exposure. All ISPI research is free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Key Findings
Federal funds were 24.1 percent of Hawaii's state revenue in FY2023, the lowest share of any state (Pew 2025); BEA places Hawaii in the top fifth of states for federal spending relative to GDP
The Governor proposed pausing scheduled tax cuts to preserve $1.8 billion in 2026; the Legislature adopted other savings and largely kept the cuts (Star-Advertiser)
Byrne JAG allocations follow a statutory population and violent crime formula with no cost-of-living factor (34 U.S.C. 10156)
Summary of the paper
"Federal Funding Uncertainty and Hawaii's Island Resilience" examines how federal funding uncertainty affects Hawaii's public safety and emergency management programs, and what state options reduce that exposure.
It draws on Pew's analysis of state revenue, BEA's experimental estimates of federal spending by state, 2026 state budget reporting, and the Byrne JAG statute.
What the paper finds
- Two kinds of exposure. Federal funds were 24.1 percent of Hawaii's state revenue in FY2023, the lowest share of any state (Pew), but BEA places Hawaii in the top fifth of states for federal spending relative to GDP.
- The 2026 session. The Governor proposed pausing scheduled tax cuts to preserve $1.8 billion; the Legislature chose other savings and largely kept the cuts.
- Formulas. Byrne JAG allocations follow a population and violent crime formula with no cost-of-living factor.
- A missing inventory, in ISPI's analysis: there is no published list of grant-dependent public safety positions.
What it recommends
- Executive branch: publish an inventory of federally funded public safety positions.
- Legislature: define a state-funded emergency management baseline.
- Congressional delegation: study cost factors in grant formulas.
- HIEMA: maintain grant-disruption contingency plans.
Who it's for
State budget officials, legislators, county emergency managers, and police leadership.
The Compact states (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau) receive federal assistance under Compacts of Free Association, so federal funding decisions also bear on their public safety capacity, in ISPI's analysis.
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Federal Funding Uncertainty and Hawaii's Island Resilience: Public Safety Grant Exposure and State Options (ISPI HI-05). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi05-federal-funding https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449770
BibTeX
@techreport{ispihi052026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Federal Funding Uncertainty and Hawaii's Island Resilience: Public Safety Grant Exposure and State Options},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI HI-05},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi05-federal-funding},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449770}
}Related Research
WP-10 — Democratic Resilience →HI-06 — Infrastructure Deficit →WP-01 — Island-State Security →Related analysis
AnalysisThe Pacific Invoked the Biketawa Declaration Over Fuel: What It Means for Island Supply Chains →AnalysisHow to Apply an Island Emergency Management Framework to Your Organization →AnalysisHawaii's June 14 FEMA Deadline Exposes the Island Disaster Recovery Gap That Lahaina Already Documented →PaperHI-04 — Maui Recovery and Emergency Management Reform: Three Years After Lahaina →RegionThe Compact States: Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau →RegionHawaii Public Safety Research →GuideIsland Emergency Management & Preparedness: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Federal Funding Uncertainty and Island Resilience in Hawaii." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi05-federal-funding
