In ISPI's analysis, small island states can face agreements they cannot fully evaluate because they lack the institutional analytical capacity to independently assess complex bilateral security and economic arrangements. In ISPI's analysis, this is a governance capacity gap rather than a leadership failure.
Abstract
Documents the governance capacity gap in Pacific Island nations that makes them structurally susceptible to external security and economic arrangements, with the Solomon Islands as its case. Provides institutional capacity investment framework. All ISPI research is free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Key Findings
The Solomon Islands signed a security agreement with China in April 2022; in ISPI's analysis the case illustrates the capacity question
The Pacific Islands Forum's 2018 Boe Declaration sets an expanded concept of regional security and affirms each member's sovereign right to conduct its affairs
ISPI proposes shared analytical capacity, including optional pre-signing agreement review through the Forum Secretariat
Summary of the paper
"Democratic Resilience and Governance Stability in Pacific Island Nations" examines how institutional analytical capacity affects small governments' ability to evaluate external agreements independently.
It uses the April 2022 Solomon Islands–China security agreement as its case and the Pacific Islands Forum's 2018 Boe Declaration as regional context. Interpretations are ISPI's analysis.
What the paper finds
- Capacity is protective, in ISPI's analysis. Access to legal, economic and security expertise helps small governments negotiate terms on their own behalf.
- The Solomon Islands case illustrates the demands that complex agreements place on small public services; ISPI notes this interpretation should be tested against primary documentation.
- Partnership design matters. In ISPI's analysis, co-designed capacity programs are likely to be more durable.
What it recommends
- Forum Secretariat: a shared analytical capacity program with optional pre-signing review.
- Australia: co-designed analytical capacity in governance aid.
- U.S. State Department: an analytical capacity focus in Pacific partnerships.
- Pacific governments: pool specialized analysis.
Who it's for
Pacific Island governments, the Forum Secretariat, development partners, and governance researchers.
In ISPI's analysis, similar capacity questions arise for many small island states in the Pacific and the Caribbean.
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Democratic Resilience and Governance Stability in Pacific Island Nations: Institutional Capacity, External Pressure, and the Policy Framework for Small State Governance Security (ISPI WP-10). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp10-democratic-resilience https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449812
BibTeX
@techreport{ispiwp102026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Democratic Resilience and Governance Stability in Pacific Island Nations: Institutional Capacity, External Pressure, and the Policy Framework for Small State Governance Security},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI WP-10},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp10-democratic-resilience},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449812}
}Related Research
WP-11 — AI Governance →HI-05 — Federal Funding Uncertainty →PB-18 — Democratic Resilience Small Island States →Related analysis
AnalysisThe Solomon Islands Security Agreement — Three Years On, What the Governance Research Shows →AnalysisDemocratic Resilience in Pacific Island Nations — The Research Gap That Enables External Pressure →AnalysisPacific Island Governments and the Case for Independent Security Research →PaperWP-09 — At-Risk Youth and Juvenile Justice in Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Communities →GuidePacific Island Governance, Global Policy & AI: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Democratic Resilience in Pacific Island Nations." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/wp10-democratic-resilience
