HPD reported 448 vacant sworn positions as of February 2, 2026, despite a pay raise and expanded recruitment. This is a retention failure driven by the real compensation gap created by Hawaii's $1.1 million median home price — not a recruitment failure that standard interventions address.
Abstract
Independent analysis of HPD's staffing crisis documenting the real compensation gap driving lateral transfers to mainland departments and providing evidence-based island-specific retention interventions. Presented to incoming HPD Chief David Lazar. All ISPI research is free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Key Findings
448 sworn officer vacancies as of February 2, 2026 — documented in HPD Interim Chief Vanic testimony to the Honolulu City Council
Vacancies persist despite a SHOPO salary increase in November 2025, which in ISPI's analysis indicates that compensation increases alone do not address the retention driver
The real departure driver is the homeownership calculation: a lateral transfer to a mainland department paying $15,000 less restores homeownership feasibility that $85,000 in Honolulu does not provide
Summary of the paper
This Hawaii Policy Research paper asks what primarily drives Hawaii's chronic law enforcement vacancy problem and which interventions produce the strongest retention results per dollar. It analyzes Honolulu Police Department (HPD) vacancy data, compares compensation after adjusting for Hawaii's cost of living using DBEDT data, reviews retention program evaluations from comparable high-cost markets and applies ISPI's practitioner analysis of why officers transfer laterally.
The paper's diagnosis is that Hawaii's problem is retention, not recruitment. Hawaii agencies consistently attract qualified applicants, but trained officers leave for mainland departments, and the paper traces that decision mainly to housing costs. It argues that signing bonuses and advertising treat a symptom, and that targeted non-salary compensation aimed at the departure driver is the treatment.
What the paper finds
- Chronic short staffing compounds. According to the paper, HPD has operated at roughly 80% of authorized strength for multiple consecutive years. An agency at 80% staffing is not delivering 80% of public safety: response times degrade, detectives are pulled to patrol, mandatory overtime raises wellness risk, and community engagement capacity, the hardest to rebuild, is lost.
- The driver is retention. Trained officers typically leave for mainland departments within 5 to 10 years. The paper's example is a mid-career Honolulu officer earning $85,000 facing median home prices above $900,000, who can calculate higher real purchasing power, and achievable homeownership, in a mainland department paying less.
- Real compensation matters more than nominal pay. Salary adjusted for Hawaii's cost of living drives lateral transfer decisions more than any other documented factor.
- Non-salary tools go further per dollar. Base salary increases lose value to income tax and benefit calculations. Housing assistance shows the strongest documented retention evidence of any non-salary mechanism in comparable high-cost markets.
- Federal formulas underfund Hawaii. COPS Office and Byrne JAG allocations are population-based with no cost-of-living adjustment, so Hawaii agencies get comparable federal funding while facing substantially higher personnel costs.
What it recommends
- Hawaii State Legislature: create housing assistance for officers, with below-market mortgage rates through HHFDC and down payment assistance for officers who commit to at least five years of service.
- Hawaii State Legislature: create a student loan forgiveness program of up to $50,000, vesting at $10,000 a year over a five-year commitment, open to new recruits and serving officers.
- City and County of Honolulu: pay HPD officers a cost-of-living supplement indexed annually to Hawaii's housing cost index, structured as a supplement rather than base salary.
- U.S. Congress: reform COPS Office grant formulas to include a cost-of-living factor based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis regional price parity index.
Limitations the paper notes
Systematic longitudinal data on Hawaii law enforcement retention by tenure cohort is not publicly available. The retention-failure characterization is derived from vacancy rate data and stakeholder documentation.
Who it's for
Honolulu City Council members, the Mayor's Office and state legislators who, the paper notes, have the authority to implement all four recommendations; police commission members and HPD leadership; and officers' associations and community groups following the staffing debate.
Pacific Island national police forces in Fiji, PNG, and Solomon Islands face comparable workforce attrition driven by officer departure to New Zealand, Australia, and private security — the same structural dynamic operating at smaller scale.
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Hawaii Law Enforcement Workforce Crisis: An Independent Assessment — Diagnosis, Evidence, and Policy Recommendations for the City Council and State Legislature (ISPI HI-03). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi03-law-enforcement-workforce https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449949
BibTeX
@techreport{ispihi032026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Hawaii Law Enforcement Workforce Crisis: An Independent Assessment — Diagnosis, Evidence, and Policy Recommendations for the City Council and State Legislature},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI HI-03},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi03-law-enforcement-workforce},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449949}
}Related Research
WP-05 — Law Enforcement Workforce Policy →HI-01 — Housing Affordability →PB-12 — Hawaii Law Enforcement Recruitment →Related analysis
AnalysisHPD Staffing Shortage Tracker: Honolulu Police Vacancies, Recruits and Retirements →AnalysisWhy Island Police Departments Face Structural Officer Shortages That Continental Solutions Cannot Fix →AnalysisThe Island Law Enforcement Workforce Crisis Is Not a Hawaii Problem →AnalysisHonolulu Has a New Police Chief. He Has Never Lived in Hawaii. →PaperPB-12 — Hawaii Law Enforcement Recruitment Crisis — Policy Response →PaperWP-05 — Law Enforcement Workforce Policy in Island Communities →RegionHawaii Public Safety Research →GuideHawaii Law Enforcement Workforce & Recruitment: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Law Enforcement Workforce Policy in Hawaii: HPD Staffing Crisis Analysis." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/hi03-law-enforcement-workforce