Commentary extending Lahaina wildfire lessons to wildfire risk in Pacific island communities beyond Hawaii.
Commentary extending Lahaina wildfire lessons to wildfire risk in Pacific island communities beyond Hawaii. Free under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 — no registration required.
Summary of the paper
"Beyond Maui" is an ISPI commentary on wildfire risk and emergency management policy for Hawaii and other island communities after the August 2023 Lahaina fire. It argues that the policy question is no longer whether island communities face wildfire risk, but which communities are most vulnerable and what can reduce that vulnerability.
The commentary contrasts island wildfire with the forest fires that shape continental policy. Hawaii's most destructive fires burn through dry grassland and former sugarcane fields, move quickly, and do not respond to firebreak strategies designed for forests.
What the paper finds
- Wind and fire combine. The commentary attributes Lahaina's speed to dry conditions combined with extreme winds generated as Hurricane Dora passed south of the islands, and argues that this combination should be treated as a design scenario, not an outlier.
- Continental models understate speed. Wildland-urban interface models calibrated on forest fire spread can underestimate how fast grassland fires reach populated areas.
- The risk profile repeats elsewhere. ISPI identifies a three-factor vulnerability profile seen in Lahaina, combining dry fuel next to communities, limited evacuation route capacity and inadequate warning infrastructure, in other Hawaii communities that have not yet had a major fire.
What it recommends
- Commission a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment identifying every Hawaii community with the three-factor vulnerability profile, and prioritize the highest-risk communities.
- Develop Hawaii-specific grass and shrubland fire behavior models that reflect island vegetation, topography and wind patterns.
- Mandate community-level wildfire preparedness planning for high-risk communities, including shelter-in-place protocols, pre-positioned supplies and multi-channel warnings.
Who it's for
County and state emergency managers, fire agencies, land managers, community associations and policymakers in Hawaii and other island jurisdictions with grassland fire risk.
This research connects to the 39 Small Island Developing States worldwide through the Samoa Pathway and BPOA+30 framework. Every ISPI research product carries a mandatory SIDS global bridge per the ISPI Research Architecture.
Further reading
Cite as
Pulley, Warren (2026). Beyond Maui: Wildfire Risk, Emergency Management Policy, and the Island Communities That Are Next (ISPI CM-10). Island Security Policy Institute, Honolulu. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/cm10-island-wildfire-policy https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449926
BibTeX
@techreport{ispicm102026,
author = {Pulley, Warren},
title = {Beyond Maui: Wildfire Risk, Emergency Management Policy, and the Island Communities That Are Next},
institution = {Island Security Policy Institute},
address = {Honolulu, HI},
number = {ISPI CM-10},
year = {2026},
url = {https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/cm10-island-wildfire-policy},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23449926}
}Related analysis
AnalysisHow to Conduct an Insular Vulnerability Audit: A Step-by-Step Guide for Island Organizations →AnalysisHow to Apply an Island Emergency Management Framework to Your Organization →AnalysisWhat Is Island Emergency Management? Why Continental Frameworks Don't Apply →PaperCM-09 — Tsunami Preparedness in Pacific Island Communities →PaperCM-11 — Diversity and Representation in Island Law Enforcement →GuideIsland Emergency Management & Preparedness: Research and FAQ →Pulley, Warren. "Island Wildfire Policy Beyond Maui — A Pacific Perspective." Island Security Policy Institute, 2026. https://ispiglobal.com/papers-landing/cm10-island-wildfire-policy
