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Research Analysis · ISPI

The Island Security Policy Research Gap

Before ISPI, no research institution produced public safety policy designed from island structural realities. This is what that gap looks like — and what filling it requires.

Warren Pulley
Founder & Executive Director · Island Security Policy Institute · 2026
Author profile · ORCID: 0009-0007-8694-0149 · SSRN

600 million people live on islands. The U.S. alone has island territories — Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands — with a combined population exceeding 4 million. The 39 Small Island Developing States recognized by the United Nations include some of the world's most vulnerable governance environments. Until ISPI was established in 2026, no nonprofit research institution produced public safety policy designed exclusively from island structural realities.

Gap 1: Emergency Management Research

FEMA's National Incident Management System and Incident Command System were designed for continental mass-casualty events with mutual aid from adjacent jurisdictions, reachable within hours. The literature on island emergency management is sparse and primarily descriptive — after-action reports documenting what went wrong, without prescriptive framework alternatives. The Lahaina wildfire of August 8, 2023 — 100 deaths, $5.5 billion in damages — was not an unpredictable disaster. It was a predictable outcome of applying continental emergency management to an island environment. The warning systems designed for continental tsunami and wildfire did not account for island topography, population density patterns, or the single-road evacuation constraint that trapped residents. ISPI-WP03 documents the five framework failures and the island-specific alternatives.

Gap 2: Law Enforcement Workforce Research

HPD's 448 sworn officer vacancies as of February 2026 — 32% growth over four years — cannot be explained by national law enforcement workforce research. That research identifies compensation as the primary departure driver and recommends signing bonuses and recruiting expansion as the primary interventions. HPD has implemented both. The vacancies grew anyway. ISPI's HI-03 identifies the island-specific departure driver: the real compensation gap created by Hawaii's $1.1 million median single-family home price. An officer earning $85,000 in Honolulu faces a homeownership calculus that no mainland salary comparison captures. The interventions with documented retention evidence for this specific condition — housing assistance, student loan forgiveness, cost-of-living supplements — are not included in national law enforcement workforce research because national research does not model island housing markets.

Gap 3: Insider Threat Research for Small Organizations

The Carnegie Mellon CERT Common Sense Guide to Mitigating Insider Threats — the governing insider threat reference document for U.S. government agencies — was designed for large continental organizations with dedicated insider threat program managers, anonymous reporting infrastructure, and access administration systems with built-in redundancy. A 22-person Pacific Island customs agency has none of these structural features. The May 2026 Pacific Transnational Crime Summit in Fiji documented the result: New Zealand Customs formally warned that organized crime groups are increasingly exploiting "professional facilitators and trusted insiders" within Pacific border agencies. A Tongan customs officer and a Tongan prison officer were arrested for drug trafficking facilitation. ISPI-WP02 provides the island-specific insider threat framework that existing research does not.

Gap 4: Pacific Governance Research

The 2022 China-Solomon Islands security agreement was signed by a government that lacked the institutional analytical capacity to fully evaluate its implications. Not because the government was incompetent — because governing a nation of 800,000 people with a small civil service does not produce the institutional assessment infrastructure that complex bilateral security agreements require. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime's March 2026 report on Chinese policing in the Pacific confirmed what ISPI-WP10 documented: China's policing engagement has shifted from technical training to operational embeddedness across more than a dozen Pacific nations. The governance research gap is not in understanding what happened — it is in understanding why small island governments are structurally susceptible to these arrangements and what institutional capacity investment prevents them.

Gap 5: Supply Chain Security

The Pacific Islands Forum invoked the Biketawa Declaration on May 11, 2026 — its highest crisis mechanism, previously reserved for RAMSI and COVID-19 — to coordinate a regional response to the energy crisis linked to Middle East conflict. Eighteen Pacific nations simultaneously faced supply chain disruption across transport, shipping, aviation, public services, and household livelihoods. This is supply chain singularity operating at regional scale: the structural condition ISPI-WP06 identified and documented before the crisis materialized. The research gap is not in understanding that islands import fuel and food — it is in the policy framework for what governments, institutions, and corporations operating in island environments should build before the disruption occurs.

ISPI Research Addressing These Gaps
WP-01 — Island-State SecurityWP-02 — Insider Threat FrameworkWP-03 — Emergency ManagementWP-06 — Supply Chain SecurityWP-10 — Democratic ResilienceHI-03 — Law Enforcement Workforce
Primary Sources
National Criminal Justice Reference Service — ISPI research indexed GI-TOC — Policing Partnerships in the Pacific (March 2026) Pacific Islands Forum — Biketawa Declaration Wikidata — Island Security Policy Institute (Q139822710) PRLog — ISPI Institutional Launch Announcement
Island Security Policy Institute
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